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Gay Marriage Predictions in Louisiana
Nate Silver of the political statistics blog FiveThirtyEight (which became popular when he used statistics to accurately predict the 2008 election) used a regression model to produce a prediction of when each US state would vote against a gay marriage ban. Louisiana has previously voted for a ban on gay marriage and taking into account other factors, including religiosity the percentage of white evangelical christians, Silver predicts that it’ll 2019 before Louisiana votes against a marriage ban. It’s an interesting statistical model that seems, from his evidence, to be quite accurate. What’s notable is that we’re ahead of most of the Southern states with the notable exception of Texas. You can read more about Nate’s predictions here.
What do you think? Is this prediction an accurate characterization of Louisiana? Do you think 2019 is right, or is a decade too long or short? What does it say about Louisiana to be where we are in comparison to other Southern states?
I’d say 2039 is more likely. The thing to remember is, not all of the supporters come out to vote. But almost all of the opponents come out to vote. So people who say they would support marriage equality in a poll would not necessarily come out to vote for it.